THIS IS IT

By Chris Pika, AF.com / December 18, 2006

If you are at your desk or standing around the water cooler today and wondering, “How do the Falcons make the playoffs?”, we are here to help with your discussion.

The NFC Wild Card landscape is crowded at the moment (click here for conference standings). Philadelphia (8-6), thanks to a convincing 36-22 victory at the New York Giants late Sunday afternoon, has the current hold on the #5 seed. The Giants and the Falcons, both 7-7 are in a tie for the #6 seed, but New York holds the edge in a two-team tiebreaker, thanks to their 27-14 victory in the Georgia Dome on Oct. 15.

There is a large group behind the Falcons and the Giants at 6-8 (Green Bay, San Francisco, Carolina, Minnesota and St. Louis). Two division races are still up for grabs as Dallas (who has clinched a playoff berth), leads the Eagles by one game and the Giants by two in the NFC East. Seattle leads San Francisco and St. Louis by two games in the NFC West.

Four teams are completely out of the playoff picture in the NFC - Washington, Tampa Bay, Arizona and Detroit.

Identifying who is still in and who is definitely out is the easy part.

So, again the question – How do the Falcons make the NFC Playoffs?

The easiest road for Atlanta is to win both games. Then, according to the Elias Sports Bureau in New York, who is in charge of tracking all of the possibilities – ONE of the following three things MUST happen:

1. Dallas beats Philadelphia on Christmas Day OR

2. Dallas beats Detroit in Week 17 OR

3. New York loses once (to either New Orleans this Sunday or at Washington in Week 17).

In other words, two Falcons victories combined with one Cowboys victory OR one Giants loss in the next two weeks puts Atlanta into January with Miami on their minds.

Now, also know, according to Elias, a loss on Sunday does not eliminate the Falcons from the playoff chase. In that case, the Falcons would-be in a must-win situation at Philadelphia on New Year’s Eve. A victory in Philly, coupled with favorable outcomes in several other Week 17 games, would put the Falcons into the playoffs.

But, first things first for the Falcons. All focus is on the Georgia Dome this Sunday vs. the Panthers. The straightest road to the playoffs for Atlanta begins with a single step – a needed victory on Sunday.

(If you want to read how the tiebreakers are applied by the NFL —click here)

Here are the NFC Playoff scenarios going into Week 16:

NFC EAST
Dallas has clinched playoff berth
Dallas can clinch division with:
1) DAL win.

Philadelphia can clinch playoff berth with:
1) PHI win, OR
2) PHI tie + NYG loss or tie, OR 3) PHI tie + ATL loss.

New York can clinch playoff berth with:
1) NYG win + MIN loss or tie + ATL loss + PHI win or tie + SEA win or tie, OR
2) NYG win + MIN loss or tie + ATL loss + PHI win or tie + SF loss or tie.

NFC NORTH
Chicago has clinched homefield advantage.

NFC SOUTH
New Orleans has clinched division:
New Orleans can clinch first round bye with:
1) NO win + DAL loss.

NFC WEST
Seattle can clinch division with:
1) SEA win or tie, OR
2) SF loss or tie.

Arizona, Detroit, Tampa Bay and Washington have been eliminated from NFC playoff contention

Falcons, Sports